Ayo Ibaru, CEO of Northcourt, one of Nigeria’s leading real estate advisory firms, and Co-Founder of Build Africa Technology Company, has delivered a detailed assessment of Nigeria’s weakening real estate outlook, warning that mounting pressures on both demand and supply continue to slow sector growth.
Speaking during a review of the country’s third-quarter GDP results, Ibaru drew attention to the steady decline in real estate performance, noting that the sector grew by 8% in the first quarter of 2024 but has since fallen to 3.5% year-on-year by the third quarter of 2025.
He explained that what the National Bureau of Statistics captures as real estate GDP is largely the services component such as rents, facility management, valuations and related activities. Despite rising rental prices, he said more tenants are defaulting on service charges, a sign of deepening economic strain. He added that a 15-year trend analysis conducted by Northcourt showed landlords increasingly struggling to collect key charges, especially in gated communities, underlining the sector’s widening fragility.
YOU CAN ALSO READ: 8 Dangote Businesses That Failed – And the Lessons They Reveal
Ibaru pointed out that long-term patterns show a sector that fluctuates but is currently on a downward trajectory because fewer new assets are being delivered relative to Nigeria’s massive housing demand. He linked the recent rebound in the construction sector, now at 5.57 percent in the third quarter, to government-driven infrastructure projects and the usual rise in public works ahead of election cycles.
Citing large projects such as the Lagos–Calabar Expressway, as well as Abia State’s capital expenditure prioritizing education and roads, he said construction activity typically intensifies before elections. With construction rising, he projected that real estate services would follow by the first quarter of next year, noting that construction always leads because services cannot be measured on assets that are not yet built.
Addressing affordability concerns, Ibaru warned that high home prices and elevated interest rates remain major barriers for prospective buyers. While praising the Equitable Mortgage Refinancing Initiative, EMRI, for its transparency and its 9.75 percent interest rate, he stressed that most Nigerians still cannot access homes priced between twenty-two million naira and three hundred million naira. Ninety-seven percent of the market is priced out, he said, adding humorously, It knocks me out too. He urged policymakers to pursue deeper mortgage reforms that can widen access for everyday Nigerians.
On the supply side, he described a more complex challenge driven by imported construction inputs that expose developers to currency volatility, despite recent improvements in exchange rate stability by the Central Bank. He also highlighted the long waiting times for property registration across states, noting that the World Bank estimates an average of ninety-two days in Nigeria compared to eight days in Rwanda, with actual timelines often exceeding official figures.
These delays create unpredictability for developers whose projects depend on speed and timely approvals to avoid loan pressures. In some cases, he warned, developers have completed projects only to find their estates labeled illegal, despite having the required documentation.
YOU CAN ALSO READ: Inside the Rise of Angelica Nwandu, the Woman Redefining Celebrity Media
Responding to questions about EMRI’s recent listing on the Nigerian Exchange, Ibaru described the move as positive for transparency and investor confidence because it shows both local and international investors that openness is achievable in Nigeria’s real estate financing landscape. However, he questioned whether the 9.75 percent rate is low enough to stimulate large-scale mortgage uptake.
I don’t know how many people are buying one hundred million or two hundred million naira homes at scale, he said, cautioning that while EMRI represents progress, much more needs to be done to unlock genuine affordability and sector-wide growth.
