The Central Bank of Nigeria has signaled renewed confidence in Nigeria’s economic trajectory, unveiling key indicators that point to easing inflationary pressures, strengthening external buffers, and sustained expansion in business activity.
Speaking at the first Monetary Policy Committee briefing of 2026, the Governor of the Central Bank, Olayemi Cardoso, presented a cautiously optimistic outlook grounded in disciplined monetary policy, improved macroeconomic fundamentals, and restored market confidence.
Month-on-month headline inflation declined sharply to –2.88 percent in January 2026, down from 0.54 percent in the preceding month. The moderation suggests that earlier monetary tightening measures are gaining traction and helping to ease price pressures across the economy.
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Further underscoring the improving outlook, the Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 55.7 points in January 2026, reflecting continued expansion in economic activities. A PMI reading above 50 signals growth, and the latest figure indicates strengthening output conditions, with positive momentum likely extending into late 2025.
In what stands out as a significant milestone, Nigeria’s gross external reserves climbed to $50.45 billion as of mid-February 2026, the highest level recorded in 13 years. The reserve position now provides import cover of 9.68 months for goods and services, reinforcing the country’s external resilience and enhancing confidence in foreign exchange stability.
During the question-and-answer session, Cardoso clarified that the figure referenced represents gross reserves rather than net reserves, adding that a detailed breakdown of net reserves will be provided in the coming days. He attributed the buildup to favorable trade developments, a healthy current account surplus, growth in non-oil exports, rising diaspora remittances, and, critically, improved investor and market confidence.
According to the Governor, sustained international engagement, transparent policy communication, and consistency in delivering on reform commitments have strengthened sentiment around Nigeria’s macroeconomic framework and foreign exchange management.
On the global front, the CBN projects that economic activity worldwide will strengthen in 2026, supported by progress in trade negotiations, increased investment in artificial intelligence-related technologies, and gradual monetary policy easing across major economies. However, Cardoso cautioned that significant risks remain, including rising protectionism, geopolitical fragmentation, and the possibility of renewed trade disputes.
Global disinflation is expected to continue in 2026, driven by the lagged effects of earlier monetary tightening, easing supply chain disruptions, and improved stability in commodity markets. Nevertheless, inflation in several economies may remain above historical norms due to structural rigidities and uneven disinflation patterns.
Domestically, the Bank expects the current momentum of disinflation to persist in the near term, supported by prior policy tightening, stability in the foreign exchange market, and improved food supply conditions. However, the Governor noted that increased fiscal releases, including election-related spending, could pose upside risks if not carefully managed.
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Reaffirming its mandate, the Monetary Policy Committee emphasized its commitment to an evidence-based framework anchored on price stability while safeguarding the soundness and resilience of Nigeria’s financial system.
The next MPC meeting is scheduled for May 19 and 20, 2026.
The overarching message from the apex bank under Cardoso’s leadership is one of cautious confidence: while external and domestic risks persist, Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals are showing measurable signs of stabilization, supported by stronger reserves, moderating inflation, and renewed faith in policy direction.
