Nigeria’s economic future must be anchored on domestic production, energy security, and self-reliance rather than an increased dependence on imports, according to leading private sector advocates who say current policy direction must be recalibrated to protect local industries and conserve foreign exchange.
At the center of this argument is Muda Yusuf, who insists that Nigeria’s long-term stability depends on strengthening internal production systems rather than expanding importation of petroleum products and food items.
Speaking under the umbrella of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Yusuf argued that the country must move decisively toward building domestic refining capacity, supporting existing private refineries, and avoiding continued reliance on public-sector facilities that have historically underperformed.
He stressed that the solution is not to expand imports, but to fix structural inefficiencies in local production systems, particularly in energy and agriculture.
Yusuf warned that continued dependence on imports exposes Nigeria to global shocks, citing recent geopolitical tensions that have disrupted supply chains and intensified economic vulnerabilities across import-dependent nations.
He pointed to Nigeria’s refining landscape as a key example, noting that while large-scale private investments such as the Dangote Refinery represent progress, policy must now focus on expanding and sustaining domestic refining capacity rather than reverting to import-led strategies.
On the controversial recommendation attributed to the World Bank suggesting increased importation of petroleum products and food as a response to supply constraints, Yusuf expressed strong reservations. He argued that while such advice may reflect short-term thinking, it risks undermining domestic investment and long-term productivity.
According to him, Nigeria’s policy response should instead focus on addressing binding constraints in agriculture and manufacturing, including access to finance, mechanization, fertilizer costs, insecurity, and infrastructure gaps.
He acknowledged that importation had previously helped stabilize food prices during periods of acute shortage, but maintained that such measures should remain strictly temporary and not evolve into long-term policy direction.
Yusuf also emphasized that market liberalization must be contextualized within Nigeria’s structural realities. While global institutions often advocate open markets, he noted that even advanced economies are increasingly adopting protectionist measures to safeguard domestic industries and manufacturing capacity.
He argued that Nigeria must strike a balance between market-driven reforms and strategic government intervention, especially in sectors where market failures are evident, such as agriculture, healthcare, education, and transportation.
“The market cannot solve everything,” he noted, stressing that government support remains essential where private capital is unwilling or unable to invest at scale.
He further referenced Nigeria’s recent fiscal policy measures, describing them as broadly supportive of domestic industry. The policies include import adjustment taxes designed to protect local producers, reduced tariffs on raw materials and intermediate goods, and excise duties aimed at discouraging consumption of certain goods while encouraging local production.
Yusuf said these measures represent a more balanced approach to industrial policy, combining protection for strategic sectors with incentives for manufacturing and agricultural productivity.
Ultimately, he maintained that Nigeria’s economic resilience depends on disciplined policy choices that prioritize local production over import dependence, while ensuring that reforms are tailored to the country’s development realities rather than applied wholesale from external models.
As Nigeria navigates inflationary pressures, currency volatility, and supply chain constraints, Yusuf’s message remains clear: sustainable growth will come not from increased importation, but from rebuilding the foundations of domestic production and industrial strength.
