For months, government officials have pointed to signs of economic recovery in Nigeria. The naira has shown relative stability, foreign reserves have improved, and investor confidence appears to be gradually returning. But according to economist and financial strategist, Tilewa Adebajo, those improvements may only reflect short term stabilization rather than genuine economic transformation.
Speaking on Arise Prime Time, the Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory delivered a sobering assessment of Nigeria’s economic outlook, warning that the country remains trapped between reform gains and deep structural vulnerabilities.
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“We’re not growing,” Adebajo said bluntly, arguing that an economy supporting more than 200 million people must sustain growth rates of at least 8 to 10 percent to meaningfully reduce poverty and improve living standards.
According to him, Nigeria’s challenge is no longer about announcing reforms but executing them effectively. He warned that the country’s rising debt profile, widening fiscal deficit, and weakening purchasing power are creating dangerous pressure points beneath the surface of recent macroeconomic gains.
At the center of his concerns is Nigeria’s projected ₦35 trillion budget deficit and what he described as an increasingly unsustainable borrowing model. Between January and April alone, the government reportedly borrowed about ₦8 trillion from the domestic debt market, nearly 80 percent of the total borrowed throughout the previous year.
Adebajo warned that domestic debt could approach ₦100 trillion by year end, while debt servicing may consume up to 80 to 90 percent of government revenue.
“If most of your revenues are going into debt service, then you don’t have enough left to invest in growth,” he said.
He also expressed concern over rising inflationary pressures driven by global shocks, including tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and volatility in oil markets. According to him, petrol prices have risen by nearly 50 percent, diesel by about 85 percent, and aviation fuel by more than 100 percent, further eroding the purchasing power of ordinary Nigerians.
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“The most important thing for Nigerians right now is purchasing power because inflation has eroded it significantly,” he noted.
Despite being an oil producing nation, Adebajo argued that years of underinvestment and weak fiscal buffers have left Nigeria vulnerable to external shocks. He explained that future oil revenues have effectively already been spent through forward oil sales, limiting the country’s ability to fully benefit from higher crude prices.
Still, he maintained that Nigeria can still achieve transformation if the government prioritizes disciplined execution over policy rhetoric.
“It’s no longer about talking,” Adebajo said. “It’s all about execution.”
For him, the next phase of Nigeria’s economic story will depend on whether the country can convert stabilization into sustainable growth before rising debt, inflation, and political distractions undermine the fragile reform gains already achieved.
