South African entrepreneur and business commentator Vusi Thembekwayo has described the planned initial public offering (IPO) of Aliko Dangote’s refinery as a potential turning point for Africa’s capital markets and industrial development.
In a recent commentary, Thembekwayo said the proposed IPO could value the Dangote Petroleum Refinery at between $40 billion and $50 billion, with the transaction potentially raising about $4 billion to $5 billion from investors.
According to him, the scale of the proposed transaction could make it the largest equity raise in Africa’s history, with implications extending far beyond Dangote Industries and Nigeria.
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Thembekwayo noted that the refinery is expected to offer about 10 per cent of its issued share capital, while the Nigerian Exchange is expected to serve as the primary listing venue.
He also highlighted the potential role of the African diaspora in the transaction, arguing that the listing could create a stronger financial connection between African businesses and investors across the world.
Beyond the size of the transaction, Thembekwayo said the bigger story is Africa’s need to build a stronger industrial base.
He argued that African economies cannot achieve sustainable development by relying primarily on the export of raw materials while importing refined and manufactured products.
According to him, the continent must strengthen its secondary industries, including manufacturing, refining and industrial production, if it wants to create jobs, build wealth and reduce dependence on imported goods.
The Dangote Refinery, located in Lagos, represents one of the continent’s largest private-sector industrial investments. Built at an estimated cost of about $20 billion, the refinery has a production capacity of approximately 650,000 barrels per day.
Thembekwayo said plans to expand the facility could eventually take its capacity to about 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially transforming Nigeria’s position in the global energy market.
He also pointed to the wider Dangote Group, which operates across multiple African countries and employs tens of thousands of people, as an example of the scale of industrial businesses Africa needs to build.
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For Thembekwayo, the significance of the proposed IPO therefore goes beyond Aliko Dangote’s personal wealth or the valuation of his refinery.
He believes the transaction could demonstrate that African companies can build large-scale industrial assets, attract global capital and use domestic capital markets to finance further expansion.
“If successfully executed,” the planned IPO could become a defining moment not only for Dangote but for Nigeria’s capital market and Africa’s broader industrialisation agenda.
