Nigeria’s economy showed stronger signs of stabilisation in September, with easing inflation, improved private-sector activity, stronger foreign reserves and a significant reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate shaping the country’s economic landscape, according to the WealthBridge Economic Intelligence Monthly Economic Report, September 2026 Edition.

The report, produced by the Market Intelligence & Research Division of WealthBridge Economic Intelligence, highlights a month of improving macroeconomic indicators, even as businesses and households continued to contend with elevated food, energy and raw-material costs.

Commenting on the latest economic indicators, Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of WealthBridge Financial Services Holdings Limited, Ahmed Adekunle Lawal, FCA, said the developments point to a gradually improving economic environment, although significant risks remain.

“The September indicators point to a gradually more supportive environment for economic activity, with moderating inflation, stronger external reserves, improved private-sector activity and a more accommodative monetary policy stance. However, we should remain measured in our optimism. The persistence of food, energy and raw-material cost pressures means that the durability of the recovery will depend largely on how effectively supply-side constraints are addressed and how these gains translate into improved conditions for businesses and households.”

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At the centre of the month’s developments was the decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria to reduce its Monetary Policy Rate by 350 basis points, from 26.50 per cent to 23 per cent.

The September 21–22 Monetary Policy Committee meeting also recalibrated the Standing Facilities Corridor to +50/-300 basis points, while retaining the Cash Reserve Requirement at 45 per cent for Deposit Money Banks, 16 per cent for Merchant Banks and 75 per cent for non-TSA public-sector deposits.

The WealthBridge report said the decision reflected improving domestic and external conditions, including stronger economic growth, greater exchange-rate stability, improving inflation expectations and stronger external balances.

Inflation also continued its gradual moderation. Headline inflation eased to 15.39 per cent year-on-year in August from 15.43 per cent in July, while food inflation declined to 19.57 per cent from 20.31 per cent. Core inflation recorded a sharper decline, falling to 13.29 per cent from 14.97 per cent.

The report, however, cautioned that the decline in inflation does not mean prices are falling. Rather, the pace at which prices are increasing has slowed, with food inflation remaining a significant pressure point for Nigerian households.

Private-sector activity provided another positive signal. The Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index rose from 54.3 in August to 56.4 in September, marking the strongest expansion in more than four and a half years.

According to WealthBridge, new orders increased for an eighth consecutive month and reached their fastest pace since February 2022, while business activity and purchasing also accelerated. Employment increased for the 16th consecutive month, although the pace of job creation remained modest.

The improved business activity was accompanied by renewed cost pressures. Input-cost inflation reached a three-month high during September, driven by higher fuel, food and raw-material prices, raising the possibility of further increases in selling prices.

Nigeria’s external position also strengthened during the month. The naira closed at ₦1,329.16 per dollar at NAFEM, compared with ₦1,332.94 at the end of August, representing a marginal 0.28 per cent appreciation.

Foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.12 billion during September to $54.93 billion, extending the accumulation recorded throughout 2026. WealthBridge said the reserve position had reached levels not seen since the 2008 oil-boom period and was above the CBN’s projected end-2026 level of $51.04 billion.

The improved monetary environment also supported the Nigerian equities market. Market capitalisation increased by 3.40 per cent to ₦163.10 trillion, while the NGX All-Share Index gained 2.87 per cent to close at 251,211.67 points.

The Oil & Gas Index emerged as the strongest sectoral performer, rising 18.86 per cent, while the Banking Index gained 3.36 per cent. Trading value increased significantly to ₦911.15 billion from ₦638.85 billion in August.

Fixed-income markets also responded to the shift in monetary policy. The 364-day Treasury bill stop rate declined from 17.15 per cent at the end of August to 15.89 per cent by the final September auction, while demand remained particularly strong for longer-dated instruments.

Commercial paper activity picked up during the month, with 11 issuers targeting approximately ₦81.70 billion across sectors including agribusiness, real estate, healthcare, manufacturing, financial services and consumer businesses.

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Despite the improved market conditions, fiscal revenue remained a concern. Federation Account allocations fell 22 per cent month-on-month to ₦2.34 trillion in August from ₦3.01 trillion in July, largely because of weaker statutory revenue. VAT revenue, however, increased by ₦40.9 billion to ₦834.8 billion.

For October, WealthBridge Economic Intelligence projects a cautiously optimistic outlook, with stronger private-sector activity and improving business confidence expected to support economic growth. The institution maintained a full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast of approximately 4.1 per cent, while identifying food, energy and raw-material costs as continuing risks to the outlook.

Lawal brings more than 25 years of experience across banking, capital raising, structured finance, private equity, mergers and acquisitions and corporate finance to his leadership of WealthBridge Financial Services Holdings Limited.

The September report therefore presents an economy moving into a potentially more supportive phase, characterised by lower inflation, a more accommodative monetary policy stance, stronger reserves and improved market activity, while warning that persistent supply-side and cost pressures could determine how durable the recovery becomes.