The Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, has said the Federal Government’s economic reforms since June 2023 mobilised N15.8 trillion in subsidy-related savings for the federation and created fiscal space that helped Nigeria avoid a deeper economic crisis.

Oyedele disclosed this while presenting the government’s Nigeria Reform Scorecard, a comprehensive assessment of the economic reforms implemented under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

He said the scorecard was designed to provide an account of what the reforms had cost Nigerians, what they had delivered and, importantly, what they had prevented from happening.

According to him, the reforms, which included the removal of petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market, came with significant costs, including higher prices, a sharp adjustment in the naira and increased pressure on households and businesses.

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“Those decisions came at a real cost. We’re not here to pretend otherwise. Prices rose. The naira adjusted sharply. Households and businesses felt it, and many still do,” Oyedele said.

He explained that between June 2023 and December 2025, subsidy savings and the impact of exchange rate reforms generated N15.8 trillion in additional resources for the federation.

Of this amount, N5.4 trillion accrued to the Federal Government, while N10.4 trillion was shared among states and local governments through the Federation Account.

Oyedele added that the Federal Government generated another N3.1 trillion through incremental independent revenue from government-owned entities during the period.

The government also increased borrowing by N11.9 trillion between June 2023 and December 2025, bringing its total incremental resources from subsidy savings, independent revenue and borrowing to N20.4 trillion.

He, however, stressed that the additional borrowing would have been significantly higher and economically destabilising without the fiscal space created by the reforms.

The Federal Government’s incremental expenditure during the period stood at N30.64 trillion, with N9.39 trillion spent on wage adjustments, minimum wage increases and allowances for public servants.

Another N9.37 trillion went to servicing external debt, while N6.5 trillion was allocated to strategic infrastructure.

Oyedele said the fact that wage-related expenditure alone exceeded the Federal Government’s entire subsidy savings demonstrated that the reforms were not primarily introduced as a revenue-generating measure.

He said the reforms were instead aimed at addressing structural distortions, including corruption and inefficiencies associated with fuel subsidy and multiple foreign exchange markets.

According to him, 58 percent of the Federal Government’s incremental resources came from borrowing, 27 percent from subsidy savings and 15 percent from other revenues.

Oyedele said the reform scorecard assessed 25 indicators across five key areas: fiscal sustainability, external stability, investment, climate and social impact, as well as growth and productivity.

The assessment compared Nigeria’s position in May 2023 with its current position and a counterfactual estimate of where the country would likely have been without the reforms.

He said the counterfactual analysis was based on pre-reform trends, including the pace of debt accumulation, depletion of external reserves, growth in Ways and Means financing and other fiscal pressures.

Oyedele said the reforms had also produced measurable benefits for ordinary Nigerians, including the payment of salaries and pensions, an increase in the minimum wage from N30,000 to N70,000, student loans and cash transfers.

He noted that 27 states were struggling to pay salaries and pensions before the reforms, compared with none currently in default.

He also said the government’s student loan programme had supported more than 1.5 million students, while interventions had been introduced in areas including agriculture, housing and social protection.

On the counterfactual impact, Oyedele said the government estimated that at least 30 states could have been struggling to pay salaries and pensions had the pre-reform trajectory continued.

He added that the premium between the official and parallel foreign exchange markets, which had exceeded 60 percent before the reforms, had fallen to below five percent.

According to him, Nigeria’s net external reserves had risen from roughly $3 billion in 2023 to $34.8 billion, while gross reserves increased from about $35 billion to $52.5 billion.

He said headline inflation had declined to 15.91 percent as of June 2026, compared with 22.41 percent in May 2023, while food inflation fell from 24.82 percent to 17.52 percent.

Nigeria’s GDP growth, he said, had strengthened to 3.89 percent from a baseline of 2.31 percent.

Oyedele also highlighted the growth of the Nigerian capital market, saying market capitalisation had increased from approximately N31 trillion to N150 trillion.

He said Nigeria had also recorded improvements in its international financial standing, including a sovereign credit rating upgrade by S&P Global and its removal from international financial crime monitoring lists.

However, Oyedele acknowledged that the reforms had imposed significant costs on Nigerians.

He cited the increase in the Monetary Policy Rate from 18.5 percent to 26.5 percent and the rise in petrol prices from about N185 per litre to between N1,100 and N1,400 as major costs of economic stabilisation.

He maintained that the counterfactual analysis suggested that without the reforms, petrol could have remained officially priced at about N185 per litre but become increasingly unavailable, with black-market prices potentially reaching N3,000 per litre.

Oyedele also acknowledged that poverty and household welfare remained “unfinished business”, stressing that the government could not claim victory while many households continued to face economic hardship.

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Looking ahead, he said the government would focus on translating macroeconomic stability into tangible improvements in household welfare.

He said priorities would include implementing the new tax laws, improving fiscal accountability, expanding cash transfers, strengthening agricultural interventions to reduce food prices and ensuring that economic gains reach states and local governments.

Oyedele urged Nigerians to engage with the reform scorecard critically and constructively, saying the government was prepared to have its figures and methodology scrutinised.

“We’re here to show you honestly and with the numbers what they cost, the benefit they delivered, and the harm that they prevented,” he said.